What Is a Good Return During Wartime?
- britneybutler05
- 9 hours ago
- 4 min read
There is a certain kind of clarity that only comes from being in the room.
Not reading the headlines. Not watching the markets scroll across your screen. Actually sitting among the people whose job it is to make sense of moments like this one —-- and listening to how they talk and the value they add through their experiences and expertise.
That is where I found myself recently, at the 2026 Asia Pacific Real Estate Convention hosted by FIABCI-Thai in Bangkok, Thailand. Developers, investors, brokers and appraisers from more than 30 countries gathered under one theme: adapting real estate strategy in a changing world.
And on the agenda— The title of a session that caught everyone’s attention:
What is a good return, during wartime?
Relevant. Applicable and thought provoking. With conflict in the Middle East rippling through energy markets, mortgage rates, and investor confidence around the globe, it has become the defining question of 2026. And watching the panel unfold, surrounded by professionals from markets all over the world, I realized the answer is not what most people expect.
So let’s talk about it.
How Fragile “Certainty” Really Is
If there is one thing I have learned in my life and my career, it is how quickly the things we assume are solid can be tested.
We build our plans on the belief that tomorrow will look like today. That the Market will behave. That the ground beneath us is steady. And then something shifts — a conflict, a disruption, a shock to the system— and suddenly everyone is reminded that certainty was never guaranteed. It was only ever an assumption.
That is the emotional reality investors are living in right now. And it is exactly why a question like “What is a good return during war time?” can fill a room.
Here is what I have come to understand: fragility is not the same as failure. Uncertainty is not the same as loss. The people who do well in moments like this are not the ones who panic. They are the ones who understand the difference.
What the Room Was Actually Saying
As I sat and listened to the panel, here is what I observed.
Most investors right now are pulling back from real estate and leaning more into other investments, or holding. That is the instinct. When the environment feels unstable, people reach for what feels liquid, fast and easy to exit.
But the more experienced voices in the room pointed to the other side— and this is the part I want you to sit with.
When there is uncertainty, that is often the time to get in. Investments are priced low precisely because of the environment around them. And history has shown, again and again, that the environment does not last. When the market turns— and it always turns— the people who hesitated during the chaos are the ones who missed the entry point. They watch the recovery from the sidelines, priced out of the very opportunity they were standing in front of. ‘
This isn't just a prediction, it's a proven pattern. And being in a room full of professionals who have watched it play out for decades and across borders made it land differently than any article ever could.
One of the gifts of a convention like this is the conversations that happen between the sessions— the conversations with professionals whose markets look nothing like the Washington DC, Maryland, and Virginia markets.
I spoke with colleagues from Russia, Georgia, the Philippines and Vietnam. And what struck me was not how differently they treat real estate, but how consistently. Across all of these markets, real estate is still viewed the way it has been viewed – as the stability beneath the economy. Not the asset that swings the wildest, but the one that holds when other things wobble.
There is something grounding about hearing that from people who have lived through their own seasons of instability. It reframes the American conversation. We tend to treat uncertainty as a reason to wait. Much of the rest of the world treats real estate as the thing you hold because the world is uncertain.
What the Data Showed Versus What the Headlines Scream
This is the contrast I cannot stop thinking about.
The headlines scream war and uncertainty. Pull back. Wait it out. Protect yourself. All very valid concerns.
The conversation in the room told a more nuanced story—- at least in the markets I was studying. In Thailand, land values have climbed dramatically over the past two decades. Foreign buyers have been surging into the market, not fleeing.
While headlines tell one story, the people putting capital to work were quietly telling another.
That gap —- between what the noise says and what the numbers show — is where opportunity lives. And it is exactly why I believe strongly in being informed by primary sources.
So, What is a Good Return During Wartime?
There is no one single answer. Rather a framework.
A good return during wartime is one that:
Preserves your capital while still generation income
Is anchored in necessity-based demand, because people will always need somewhere to live
Is diversified across geographies and asset classes, so no single shock can take you down
Does not depend on rate cuts or a perfect market to survive
Real estate has weathered wars, recessions, pandemics, and political upheaval throughout history. It will weather this too. But it rewards the prepared — the ones who understand not just the property, but the world the property sits in.
That is the work I do. I don't study these markets from a distance. I show up where the real conversations are happening. I listen to the people living in these markets every day, and I bring what I learn back to you —- so you can make decisions from a place of knowledge.
The conversation that began in Bangkok is one I want to continue with you.
What are you seeing in your own markets right now? What effects are showing up in your world— for you, your clients, your investments?
Drop a comment, send a message and let’s talk through it together.
Because the people who navigate uncertainty best are never the ones who face it alone.
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